The 2001 season brought back some pleasant memories of those modern-era good old days via the current reigning record kill of 17,875 gobblers. After 2001, it encountered another downslide sequel as bad winter, multiple mast failures and some cold and wet brood-rearing years occurred.

The aforementioned problems are decidedly and uncontrollably weather related. We can’t do much about them. The 2005 and 2006 seasons were a bit more normal weather-wise. Though last year’s spring gobbler kill of almost 12,000 is a stretch off the record 2001 mark of 17,875, it was still a decent comeback year. Last year produced a modest increase over the past (2005) year’s 11,000-bird tally.

Unfortunately for 2007, another upward notch toward that elusive record level may not be in the cards. It would pay to take a hard look back at that reigning record kill year of 2001 to gain insight into this spring’s forecast. That’s because that record year was preceded by a likewise reigning record brood count year of 1999!

Now remember that two-year lag time in between brood counts and harvest levels. The DNR’s erstwhile turkey guru and present chief of Wildlife Resources Curtis Taylor said, “Our biologists have found that the level of brood production accurately forecasts spring turkey harvests two years later.”

Reason being, the bulk of gobblers bagged are those lovelorn 2-year-olds. The older birds dominate the jakes or young-of-the-year birds when it comes to breeding rights. Older gobblers are experts at eluding hunters.

Taylor, by the way, was recently awarded the NWTF’s highest honor, the Mosby Award for his lifelong professional efforts in the turkey arena. He has already hinted that the 2007 kill may be down a notch from last year’s 11,879.

Why? Recalling that two-year lag effect, the brood report summary for 2005 was roughly 20 percent lower than that of 2004. That being the case, a gobbler kill in the vicinity of 10,000 birds may be pushing it for this spring. Regretfully, there are other negative factors linked to this modest forecast.

The DNR’s Bowhunter Survey confirms a declining number of turkey observations. Furthermore, the fall 2005 harvest was the lowest in nearly 40 years! Sorry for the lack of good news, but hunters must also put things in perspective. The first-ever spring gobbler season of 1966 yielded only 12 birds and averaged a few hundred per annum the decade after!

Most professionals concede that a run of consecutive or nearly consecutive good brood years would be the ticket for our turkeys. In addition to the DNR’s ongoing radio telemetry survival study of gobblers, three nearby states are studying banded gobblers all with the financial help of the NWTF. These efforts are geared to keeping the best management strategies going.